Obama Team Mulls Aims Of Somali Extremists

Obama Team = Mulls Aims Of=20 Somali Extremists
Seeing Potential Terror Threat, = Officials Debate=20 Their Options

By Greg Jaffe and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post = Staff=20 Writers
Saturday, April 11, 2009; A01

Senior Obama administration officials are debating how to address a = potential=20 terrorist threat to U.S. interests from a Somali extremist group, with = some in=20 the military advocating strikes against its training camps. But many = officials=20 maintain that uncertainty about the intentions of the al-Shabab = organization=20 dictates a more patient, nonmilitary approach.

Al-Shabab, whose fighters have battled Ethiopian occupiers and the = tenuous=20 Somali government, poses a dilemma for the administration, according to = several=20 senior national security officials who outlined the debate only on the = condition=20 of anonymity.

The organization's rapid expansion, ties between its leaders and = al-Qaeda,=20 and the presence of Americans and Europeans in its camps have raised the = question of whether a preemptive strike is warranted. Yet the group's = objectives=20 have thus far been domestic, and officials say that U.S. intelligence = has no=20 evidence it is planning attacks outside Somalia.

An attack against al-Shabab camps in southern Somalia would mark the=20 administration's first military strike outside the Iraq and = Afghanistan-Pakistan=20 war zones. The White House discussions highlight the challenges facing = the Obama=20 team as it attempts to distance itself from the Bush administration, = which=20 conducted at least five military strikes in Somalia. The new = administration is=20 still defining its rationale for undertaking sensitive operations in = countries=20 where the United States is not at war.

Some in the Defense Department have been frustrated by what they see = as a=20 failure to act. Many other national security officials say an = ill-considered=20 strike would have negative diplomatic and political consequences far = beyond the=20 Horn of Africa. Other options under consideration are increased = financial=20 pressure and diplomatic activity, including stepped-up efforts to = resolve the=20 larger political turmoil in Somalia.

The most recent discussion of the issue took place early this week, = just=20 before the unrelated seizure of a U.S. commercial ship in the Indian = Ocean by=20 Somali pirates who are holding the American captain of the vessel = hostage for=20 ransom.

The administration has not shied away from missile attacks, launched = from=20 unmanned aircraft, in Pakistan, targeting what U.S. intelligence says = are top=20 members of al-Qaeda. Evidence against al-Shabab in Somalia is far = murkier and=20 the argument in favor of a strike is based on the potential threat the = group=20 poses to American interests.

"There is increasing concern about what terrorists operating in = Somalia might=20 do," a U.S. counterterrorism official said. According to other senior = officials,=20 the camps have graduated hundreds of fighters.

The FBI and intelligence officials have said that at least 20 young = Somali=20 American men have left this country for Somalia in recent years to train = and=20 fight with al-Shabab against the Somali government and occupying = Ethiopian=20 military forces. In February, a naturalized American -- 27-year-old = Shirwa Ahmed=20 of Minneapolis -- killed himself and many others in a suicide bombing in = Somalia.

The U.S., Canadian and European fighters at the al-Shabab training = camps are,=20 for now, being used primarily as cannon fodder in Somalia's chaotic = internal=20 wars, Philip Mudd, the No. 2 official at the FBI's National Security = Branch,=20 told Congress last month. "We do not have a credible body of reporting = right now=20 to lead us to believe that these American recruits are being trained and = instructed to come back to the United States for terrorist acts," he = said. "Yet,=20 obviously, we remain concerned about that and watchful for it."

Some officials have said that those trained at the camps could leave = Somalia,=20 making their way through countries such as Yemen, where al-Qaeda has a = stronger=20 presence. But officials said there has been little movement outside = Somalia.

Al-Shabab was formed from the remnants of an Islamist government = overthrown=20 in 2006 by a U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion. Many of its recruits joined = to=20 fight the Ethiopians, who have now largely withdrawn, and officials said = U.S.=20 intelligence believes most al-Shabab fighters have been drawn to the=20 organization for nationalistic reasons rather than an interest in global = terrorism.

The group has become the strongest force inside Somalia, holding a = large=20 swath of territory in the south and contesting the current government's = hold on=20 power.

Mudd compared al-Shabab to other nationalistic movements in places = such as=20 Chechnya and Bosnia that have drawn fighters from abroad. Foreign = recruits raise=20 the profile of the local militant groups and make it appear as though = they are=20 part of a broader struggle, Mudd said. "They're accepting non-Somali = fighters. .=20 . . I think it adds to their credibility. It's a public relations = bonanza for=20 them."

Some of the widespread anti-Ethiopia feeling in Somalia redounded on = the=20 United States. "Certainly the Ethiopians weren't very popular in = Somalia, and=20 the perception that anybody was helping them wasn't popular there," = Dennis C.=20 Blair, the director of national intelligence, said at a Senate = Intelligence=20 Committee hearing last month.

The Bush administration asserted that some of al-Shabab's original = leaders=20 were responsible for the 1998 attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and = Tanzania=20 and maintained ties to al-Qaeda. Last year, it added the group to its = list of=20 terrorist organizations. "There are indications that al-Qaeda has = provided=20 support for training activity" in the camps, said a U.S. = counterterrorism=20 official.

American officials do not discount the threat of an attack on the = United=20 States or Europe. "To the extent that the al-Shabab leadership talks to = the=20 al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan," the counterterrorism official said, = "if that=20 occurs with increasing frequency, then our concerns will grow even=20 stronger."

For the moment, however, U.S. officials are more concerned about = attacks in=20 Somalia and in the region. "We're talking about . . . U.S. and Western=20 interests, as well as potential attacks against other countries in = Africa."

Similar debates over how to deal with perceived threats in countries = where=20 the United States is not at war occurred during the Bush administration, = which=20 on several occasions canceled strikes because of insufficient evidence = or=20 concern about inflaming the local population and making a politically = explosive=20 situation worse. The newness of the Obama administration, one senior = military=20 official, has slowed the decision process even more.

They are "walking slowly," the official said, "and for the players = with=20 continuity, the frustration continues to grow."

But many on the national security team insist that it is their = caution and=20 willingness to consider all aspects of the situation that differentiate = them=20 from the overly aggressive posture of the Bush administration that they = say=20 exacerbated the terrorist threat.